Five weeks ago a young woman I will call Myra, to protect her identity, died of a fentanyl overdose. I know of Myra only because my daughter told me her story. My daughter is a health care worker who until late last year worked at a women’s clinic that is funded through charitable giving. Myra was one of the patients my daughter treated. As she tells the story, Myra was a joyful and beautiful young woman who struggled with drug addiction. Because of her addiction, Myra also struggled with darkness — a darkness that wanted to take her life. She confided in my daughter about this, telling her that she did not think she would make it to her 30th birthday. Myra had just turned 29. Barely 10 months later, she died of a fentanyl overdose — a month before her 30th birthday.

Today is Easter Sunday. Over a billion Christians celebrate the resurrection of Jesus Christ on this day. They, along with many non- Christians, celebrate the triumph of life over death.

Colorado needs such a celebration. For over two years, Colorado has been the epicenter of the third wave of the opioid crisis. It has been the epicenter of the destruction wreaked on Americans by fentanyl, carfentanyl, and other synthetic opioids.

Our culture here in Colorado is marked by a strong libertarian streak. Coloradans want maximum personal freedom. That is, they want freedom up to — but not beyond — the point at which freedom causes harm.

Sometimes our state lawmakers enact laws that they believe are consistent with this libertarian ethos. They pass a law that they believe maximizes freedom without hurting people.

Occasionally, they make a mistake. Sometimes, it turns out that the law that was intended as a way to expand freedom without harming people did, in fact, harm people. And at times the result is extreme harm — sometimes people actually die. And every so often the result is even worse than that; sometimes a lot of people die.

This is what has happened in Colorado because Democrats and Republicans decided to play around with fentanyl. In 2019, the Colorado General Assembly passed the infamous House Bill 19-1263. What they accomplished through this bill was to make possession of less than four grams of fentanyl a misdemeanor, rather than a felony.

Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid, and it is at the heart of what is called the “third wave” of the opioid crisis. Fentanyl is 100 times more potent than morphine. In a similar form, carfentanyl, it is up to 10,000 times more potent than morphine. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, fentanyl, carfentanyl, and other synthetic opioids kill over 60,000 Americans per year.

There are various estimates of the amount of fentanyl that it takes to kill a person. What we know for sure is that a fatal dose is a very small amount. It is measured in micrograms — a gram equals 1 million micrograms. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency states that 2,000 micrograms is fatal. Other organizations such as HarmReductionOhio.org state that at 700 micrograms of fentanyl, an amount that you can barely see, death is “highly likely.” This means that the four gram limit specified in House Bill 19-1263 contains enough fentanyl to kill between 2,000 and 5,714 people.

This is the reason why fentanyl is different. It is lethal in doses that are barely detectable. It is almost certainly the most dangerous drug ever to arrive on our shores.

And how, exactly, does fentanyl arrive here? Most of it is manufactured in China, and then shipped to Mexico where cartels embed it into pills — many of which look like legal drugs. From there, it is then shipped northward through the U.S.’s porous southern border.

When the Colorado General Assembly passed House Bill 19-1263, and Gov. Polis signed it into law in May of 2019, they signaled to the illicit fentanyl industry that Colorado is open for business. Admittedly, this was not their intention. But it was the result.

I am an economist who has studied the opioid crisis, including this third wave fentanyl crisis. The graph below shows deaths from fentanyl overdoses in Colorado as a rolling monthly average based on the prior 12 months, before and after House Bill 19-1263 was signed.

Before House Bill 19-1263 the average number of deaths per month in Colorado from fentanyl overdoses was just over 10.

Now the average number of deaths per month in Colorado from fentanyl overdoses has risen to almost 80.

If you think that Colorado’s experience after passing House Bill 19-1263 was no worse than that of other states, you’re wrong. The graph below compares Colorado’s experience with those of the other 49. As shown, Colorado’s 529% rate of increase in fentanyl-related deaths since House Bill 19-1263 was enacted is higher than all other states except Alaska, which started from a very low base.

As shown, Colorado’s rise of 529% dwarfs that of the rest of the country, which has seen a rise of “only” 102%. In short, fentanyl is a problem for the country as a whole, but it is particularly acute in Colorado.

A friend of mine is a statistician and demographer. His name is Dr. Stephen Cranney. I asked him, along with a few other colleagues, to collect data on fentanyl deaths in Colorado and surrounding states. I then asked him to perform an analysis of the effect of House Bill 19-1263 on fentanyl deaths in Colorado.

Dr. Cranney did this using a stateof-the-art econometric method called “difference in differences.” This methodology is designed to do two things. First, it determines whether one thing caused another — in this case whether House Bill 19-1263 caused deaths in Colorado. Second, it identifies the number of deaths caused (if any).

Dr. Cranney’s analysis establishes two things. First, as a statistical matter, we can say with an extremely high level of confidence that HB 19-1263 did in fact cause deaths in Colorado. We can say this both because of the statistical tests that Dr. Cranney performed, and because his result is confirmed using two different data sets and several different statistical models.

Second, we can also quantify, with an extremely high level of confidence, the number of deaths that HB 19-1263 caused. That number is between 600 and 700 deaths.

This is a tragedy — surely one of the most serious that has ever befallen our State. The right thing to do for those who sponsored, voted for, or signed the law is to reverse course. They should raise their voices against the very bill that they sponsored. The right thing to do would be to admit that House Bill 19-1263 was a terrible mistake.

And, politically, such an admission would be a very smart move. Politicians who are willing to admit they were wrong are usually embraced — because this takes an act of character. We are all human, and we all make mistakes, but humility and honesty are rare qualities that we all respect. Such an admission would be powerful even if, as is the case here, the mistake is a grave one.

On the other hand, politicians who make mistakes like this one and then try to cover it up are despised. Politicians who try to whitewash a tragedy of this magnitude usually never recover.

Unfortunately, whitewashing seems to be exactly what is happening in Colorado. Instead of raising their hands and saying “we’re sorry, let’s fix this,” lawmakers are attempting to whitewash House Bill 19-1263. Specifically, a bipartisan group is sponsoring House Bill 22-1326.

As of this writing, House Bill 22-1326 fails to truly fix the damage House Bill 19-1263 did. Under the new whitewash bill as amended in a House committee last week, possessing one gram or less of fentanyl is still a misdemeanor. The whitewash, or sleight of hand, in the new bill is that it specifies that manufacture, sale, or distribution of any amount of fentanyl is a felony. This will not change the basic outcome of Colorado’s cruel fentanyl laws. At best, it will amount to trading lives for grams.

And Dr. Cranney and I will be watching. The same basic approach that Dr. Cranney used to assess House Bill 191263 can be used to assess House Bill 22-1326. I expect that such an analysis will show that the new whitewash bill will also kill people — just fewer of them.

This is because under HB 22-1326 fentanyl will remain present but nearly undetectable all over Colorado. It will remain present in recreational drugs taken legally by adults. It will remain present on playgrounds. It will remain present at the parties that our teenagers and college-age children attend. It will be in school lockers. Similar to COVID-19 it will be nearly undetectable, but deadly.

I have spoken with members of the law enforcement community about House Bill 22-1326. Those with whom I spoke are unanimous in their criticism of it. Their view is that the most obvious problem with HB 22-1326 is that, again, fentanyl is different. One gram of fentanyl is enough to create 10,000 non-lethal (so-called recreational) doses of 100 micrograms each. A dealer can stay in business for a very long time on one gram, all the while telling police that he is just “in possession” of that amount. The view of law enforcement is that possession of any amount of fentanyl should be a felony — and most of them agreed that felony possession should not be applied to other drugs (felony possession should only apply to fentanyl and other similar synthetic opioids.) Most of them also agreed that without strong penalties for fentanyl possession, deaths will continue and it will be difficult if not impossible to get people into treatment — why go for treatment if there is no serious penalty for possessing and using fentanyl. Most of them also believe that the bill requires a much better definition of “harm reduction,” because so-called “safe” injection sites are not harm reduction and should be explicitly excluded from the definition.

Without such changes, this whitewash bill is neither care nor compassion. It is cruel. In fact, it is cruel and cynical, because it is motivated by political calculation. The obvious and right thing to do is to make any possession of fentanyl a felony. The obvious and right thing to do is to be much more sensitive to the views of the law enforcement community, because they are the ones with direct experience of what works and what doesn’t. But so far the sponsors of HB 22-1326 are unwilling to do that because it would be an admission that they made a deadly mistake in support of House Bill 19-1263.

I want to close this by returning to Myra. When Myra told my daughter that she did not expect to live another year, my daughter reached into her pocket and gave Myra a small card with a picture of St. Philomena on it. St. Philomena is referred to as the “wonder worker” because of the astounding miracles that are attributed to her intercession. Today, on Easter Sunday, I call on lawmakers to end the deaths caused by Colorado’s cruel fentanyl laws. I call on them to do what they know to be right. I do so in the name of St. Philomena and in the name of Jesus Christ, whose resurrection is celebrated today by billions of people. I do so for Myra. May her death not be in vain.

Tim Reichert, an economist from Golden, is president and CEO of Denver-based consulting firm Economics Partners. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University. Reichert is a candidate for the Republican nomination for Colorado’s 7th Congressional District.