The Denver Gazette

Medina Spirit remains favorite, but there’s value in other picks

BY BENNY RICCIARDI FTNBets.com

The first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown came with some controversy, but in the overall scheme of things it is not as big a deal as it might have seemed at first glance. The horse was not on anabolic steroids. His blood sample showed traces of a substance used to help decrease inflammation and mask pain, and it is actually a legal substance to use, although it is supposed to be out of the horse’s system before race day, so you do not have a positive test.

It was a trace amount in a jurisdiction that allows a lower level of that substance than most others. (Kentucky allows none.) With that said, Bob Baffert has done himself no favors by being defiant about it. In the end, the horse did test at a higher level than is acceptable, the rules are widely known, and it is ultimately Baffert’s fault whether he wants to take the blame or not.

We have to start with that disclaimer, because the horse, Medina Spirit, will be running in Saturday’s Preakness. The Derby winner is almost always the favorite in the Preakness, and history backs this up. Eleven times in the last 25 years, the Derby winner also went on to win the Preakness. That’s a 44% win rate; we cannot dismiss how often this happens. This is not a stat that others will overlook, either.

If Medina Spirit goes off at anything above that 9-5 opening line, there is definitely value there. More likely, we will see something like 4-5 by race time, so if you want to take the favorite, I would be looking to figure out who can run with him to round out an exacta.

As for the horses to include with the favorite, the ones coming back from the Derby tend to be the ones who hit the board. In this race, that is only two horses: Midnight Bourbon, who finished sixth in the Derby, and Keepmeinmind, who was right behind him. Trainers do not like to run their horses twice in such a short period of time. Most horses have a good 4-6 weeks between starts during their normal calendar year, which sets up perfectly for running in the Derby and resting until the Belmont Stakes.

In recent years, fewer and fewer non-Derby winners even try to wheel back so quickly, but the percentage of horses that run in the Derby also running and hitting the board in the Preakness is way higher than random chance would suggest it should be. The race is not as easy as saying Medina Spirit wins with those two horses behind him for the trifecta, but the likelihood of two of those three hitting the board at a minimum is high.

With only three horses returning, we have seven new shooters looking to etch their name into history. The numbers used to be really bad for horses attempting to do this. It has gotten better though, as we have seen it done five times in the last 15 years, although two of those were by Fillies who ran in the Kentucky Oaks the day before that year’s Derby.

Of the new shooters, the biggest threat to Medina Spirit is another horse trained by Bob Baffert. In fact, many believed Concert Tour was actually the better of the two horses during the run up to the Kentucky Derby. He was the favorite in the Arkansas Derby before finishing third and has been training ever since. On paper, he has the best chance to upset his stablemate.

Some of the other horses in this race have not shown enough or been running well enough to factor in here. It would take a monster improvement for horses like Ram, France Go de Ina and Unbridled Honor. I threw those horses out altogether, even for underneath spots in exacta or trifecta wagers.

The remaining horses are two trained by Chad Brown in Crowded Trade and Risk Taking, as well as the Mike McCarthy-trained Rombauer. All three of these have a shot. Rombauer is actually my favorite of the three, but not for the win. He is a deep closing horse, and that is not normally the profile of a Preakness winner. While it is not the profile of a winner, he should be moving late as horses tire and could sneak into the exotics depending on how fast the race is run early. If things fall apart, he could easily pick up a piece, but I doubt he has enough to overcome the track bias against closers at this distance.

Both Brown horses ran in the Wood and neither factored into what was a subpar race to begin with. Risk Taking did win the Withers Stakes and was scratched last week to point to this race instead. I kind of like him more than I do Crowded Trade, who finished ahead of him in the Wood Memorial.

Crowded Trade remains viable because he is a lightly raced horse making just his fourth start, but that too is a knock on him for me. I prefer Risk Taking for two main reasons. The first is that he was the favorite for the Wood, so everyone expected him to beat his stablemate there, and now we are getting 15-1 on him vs. 10-1 for Crowded Trade. The second reason is that he’s won against other winners before. The only win Crowded Trade has was in a maiden race against other horses who never won before. Against winners, he has run in the money, but not won. Like Rombauer above, Crowded Trade is best used underneath in the exotics.

If you wanted to bet a longshot to turn the tables on the Derby horses and win, the best option of this group here is Risk Taking. At 15-1 on the morning line, I would not be shocked if he drifts up to 18-1 or 20-1. Anything over 12-1 is still value.

Remember, Derby winners have hit 44% of the time in the past 25 years. Derby runners also tend to hit the board more often than random chance would suggest. That means if you take the Derby winner and one of the two returning runners, you only have to choose one of the new shooters to put with them in order to have an above average chance of nailing a winning trifecta based on historical performances. For me that new shooter is going to be Risk Taking, because what fun is it to take a chalk favorite and his new shooter chalk stablemate? Everyone hates Bob Baffert right now anyway, and the racing fan in me would be too conflicted to root for both of his horses to come in on the same ticket.

SPORTS ODDS

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2021-05-14T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-05-14T07:00:00.0000000Z

https://daily.denvergazette.com/article/282071984788228

The Gazette, Colorado Springs